Este trabajo ilustra no sólo una innovadora forma de estudiar el efecto látigo, o una forma distinta de modelar las cadenas de suministro usando los principios. Se debe a un desajuste en la cadena de suministro entre las Relación entre precio-demanda pueden incrementar o mitigar el efecto látigo. Efecto Latigo Solución CPFR Planeación agregada. Es la sincronización de la estrategia de la cadena de suministro y de competitiva. Causas.
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The following is an extract from the interviews with the purchase manager: I believe that we never follow them We should expect that a better purchase policy exists in order to minimize order and raw material inventories. International Journal of Production Economics22, pp. However, we know that since it is impossible to completely eliminate the bullwhip effect, it is desirable to define heuristic policies that help to control and coordinate the supply chain while customer service is high, resulting in higher operating and financial performance.
Rectangles represent stock positions of raw materials, WIP and finished goods. Particularly, a model of this nature does not need to detail multiple plants or DCs and products to analyze the information use and decision making process of managers. In figure 7 we show the customer service level.
We order based on a maximum and minimum with small corrections according to the real demand Therefore, nothing is in process at the end of every week. Management Sciences43, 4, pp. We will illustrate just what kind of scenarios could be developed for a more detailed study, and how to asses the impact of new policies.
I look at the inventories once a week and from there I make a weekly plan: It is intuitive to think that a production, distribution or purchase manager will prefer stability rather than variability.
… more than classic ‘beer game’.
I always try to follow efecgo policy, which is optimal. For instance, the SD model can be extended to study scenarios where more information flows are available, where some conflict of interest affecting the policies between internal and external managers are considered, such as performance measurements. The launch of Mountain Dew contributed significantly to growth in Russia. For the proposed scenario, we can see how the purchase manager has stopped seeing the forecast as his heuristic policy.
EFECTO LÁTIGO by Mariam Trejos on Prezi
Every year they select a small set of suppliers from a pool of possible vendors. Consequently, in this paper, and for the sake of brevity we have only focused in describe a business case where a SD model was created to illustrate d analyse a particular situation, but not to solve the Bullwhip Effect. In our model we can see that the warehouse for raw materials needs a capacity of 90, units, and even more than that for finished goods. The initial inventory is 20, units. Model description Given the nature of the System Dynamics methodology Sterman ; Lane ; Doyle and Fordthe model will not emphasise the detail of the Supply Chain network.
They are sure that innovation was the driver of that growth, because in fact PCNA brought an array of new products to the marketplace.
What is intended on this paper is to emphasize methodology used to examine a particular problem, especially because in our opinion, and we coincide with many other authors, the Bullwhip Effect is a problem concerned with the information flow and policy alignment. The dotted line represents the forecast value and in green we have the ‘real’ demand. Smoothing Supply Chain Dynamics. The Purchase manager uses his stock position and forecast to order. An optimal policy will manage an equilibrium point where the variation of order quantities will be economical and equivalent to variations in inventories.
Due to the inventory policies, the safety stock is defined as days of coverage times the forecast. The model can include promotional events and the introduction of caxena products, in such a way that the forecast is not only influenced by past weeks but also by marketing campaigns.
Notice that inventories are approximately half of demand. We have shown that is possible to build such a model and to capture with relative simplicity but high degree of abstraction the complexities of a Supply Chain. Validation When a simulation is ran using historic demand from the yearwe can observe some dynamics resulting from the decision making structure used by the managers and in addition of uncertain latig.
In particular, the volume growth in Russia, China, Brazil and Thailand contributed to advances in market share. This has generated in the sales managers the culture of over ordering when rationing expectations appear. Introduction The study of supply chain fn is about companies operating manufacturing supply chains of multiple echelons subject to limited production and distribution capacities.
Changes in purchase orders As we have said, the purchase policy rule for raw materials implies dramatic amounts of amplification, phase lag and oscillation in the purchase orders.
There is a minimum amount of sugar to buy on a monthly basis of Ton. System Dynamics Review17, 2, pp. We shall say that the maximum demand is for 60, units, that is, 20, units less than the previous policy, with the advantage efecfo stability for the supplier. The decision making happens at the beginning of every week, when managers look at the information systems and decide how much to order upstream.
However, notice that the raw material inventory variation does not have any relationship with the demand variation. The study of supply chain dynamics is about companies operating manufacturing supply chains of multiple echelons subject to limited production and distribution capacities.
System Dynamics Review14, 1, pp. During the first DelayTime time units of the simulation, the values specified by Initial are returned Initial is a vector with one element per time step for a period equal to DelayTime. Even though the bullwhip effect has decreased we cannot declare it to be solved.
Notice that the oscillatory frequency does not have any relation to the demand variations. System dynamics, supply chain management, case study, bullwhip effect. The model lays emphasis on the modelling of policies of the supply chain managers that may be based on their own experience or knowledge. Such uncorrelated oscillations can produce some stock positions near zero, and in particular for the 45th week produce a shortage in production, which affects the DC and RDC inventories, and it is close to impacting on customer service.
As with any other beverages companies, EMSA is mainly interested in perfect order policies. However, the company only has records about sales and not ‘real’ demand. It can happen that a low forecast causes lost sales resulting in a difference between sales and ‘real’ demand.